Sunday, October 16, 2011

Iran

The discovery of an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US in Washington, DC, last week has led to heated debates both over who is responsible and how the US and other countries should respond.

While it was clear that the plot involved Iranian nationals - including a member of the Iranian special forces - it's not as clear who in the Iranian government knew about or approved the plan. Part of the reason the attack was so surprising is that it didn't seem to serve the Iranian government's interests - a former Iranian assassin has objected that attacks on American soil gain Iran little while running the risk of provoking war with the US. Others have pointed to the incompetence with which the plot was carried out, which would be a departure from the usual competence of Iran's special forces. The Obama administration claims to have clear evidence that the upper levels of the Iranian government were aware of the plot, a claim seemingly reinforced by Senate Intelligence Chairwoman Feinstein's confidence that Iran was responsible for the attack. The administration has not revealed what evidence it has for this claim, and while such secrecy may be necessary for security reasons, it may also make it more difficult to make the case for an aggressive response to the plot.

The German response to the assassination illustrates this difficulty: politicians have shown a reluctance to commit to drastic measures against Iran without clearer information about who was responsible. Interestingly, this reluctance seems not to have been present in the debate within the US government, which has focused less on whether to respond harshly and more on just how harshly to respond. Feinstein has called for harsher economic sanctions against Iran while opposing the option of military action - arguing that it would be imprudent to add another war to those that the US is already engaged in. Mike Rogers, her GOP counterpart on the House intelligence committee, has said that the use of force should not be "off the table." The differences between the internal American debate and the international one could be explained by speculating that officials in the US just have information the other governments do not. They may also stem from the fact that the plot was planned and meant to be carried out on American soil, making it seem far more of an outrage for Americans than for Germans and others.

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